Indicador de Perspectivas de Comercio Mundial señala pérdida de impulso en crecimiento del comercio durante cuarto trimestre

Probablemente el crecimiento del comercio seguirá atenuándose en el cuarto trimestre de 2018, según el último Indicador de las Perspectivas del Comercio Mundial de 2018 (WTOI) de la OMC, publicado el 26 de noviembre. El registro más reciente del WTOI, de 98,6, es el más bajo desde octubre de 2016 y refleja descensos en todos los índices que componen el indicador. Es inferior al anterior valor de 100,3 y se sitúa por debajo del valor de referencia para el índice, que es de 100, lo que señala que previsiblemente el crecimiento del comercio en los próximos meses será inferior a la tendencia.

(de momento sólo en inglés)

The continued moderation in the overall WTOI index was driven by the steady decline in the export orders index (96.6), which remains below trend and is approaching the weakest point recorded in 2012 during the eurozone crisis. Indices for automobile production and sales (96.9), electronic components (93.9), and agricultural raw materials (97.2) have meanwhile moved from on trend to below trend. International air freight (100.0) and container port throughput (101.2) have dipped but remain on trend.

The latest results are consistent with the WTO’s downgraded outlook for global trade issued in September amid escalating trade tensions and tighter credit conditions in important markets. The revised forecast anticipated trade expansion to slow to 3.9% in 2018 and 3.7% in 2019 from 4.7% in 2017.

Designed to provide «real time» information on the trajectory of world trade relative to recent trends, the WTOI is not intended as a short-term forecast, although it does provide an indication of trade growth in the near future. It aims to identify turning points and gauge momentum in global trade growth. As such, it complements trade statistics and forecasts from the WTO and other organizations. Readings of 100 indicate growth in line with medium-term trends; readings greater than 100 suggest above-trend growth, while those below 100 indicate the reverse.

The full World Trade Outlook Indicator is available here.

Further details on the methodology are contained in the technical note here.